The Long Wait
The title of this post picks up on something that Flavio Volpe, President of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturing Association, said in an interview about Project Arrow, the collaborative prototype of an all-Canadian electric vehicle. "There's no greenwashing this, if you are going to go in whole hog, then you've got to be much more thoughtful and we are not going to create that critical mineral supply chain in North America, if we force it over the next 3 or 4 years." Canada has the minerals necessary to make batteries, and we have most of the other materials to make cars. What is needed is the infrastructure, know-how, and a scalable plan.
The Project Arrow is in stage 4 of development. The prototype (above) looks really good. I like the maple floors. Touches like that are what make something memorable. Check it out:
A competitive North American product that is better than the Chinese products, will not come to market quickly. Volpe's comment that 3 or 4 years is not nearly enough time to create some kind of vertical integration in North America means that cars built to clean standards (i.e. not highly polluting and damaging mining, extracting, and manufacturing), are many years away. I would estimate 5 to 10 years away.
In the meantime, consumers like me who are looking at 3 or 4 year or reliable performance from our existing cars before they pack it in, need to look carefully at both our pocket book and our ethical parameters. Are all Chinese vehicles dirty cars as many have suggested? To one degree or another, yes. China's own environmental standards are evolving, but to date, they have not focused on clean mining, manufacturing, or energy production. But are all current EV's dirtier than ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles? Well, that depends.
ICE or EV, which is the most polluting overall?
Of the various pros and cons listed below, the energy efficiency and local air quality advantages to electric cars stand out. But what about all those horrible mining impacts I've heard about, doesn't that make EVs awful? Horror stories around cobalt and lithium mining abound. These focus on the negative effect on local people where the mining occurs, the pollution of ground water, and on the long term environmental impacts from processing and manufacturing these materials. Electric vehicles production is not clean from this perspective.
The following video clip addresses some of the key questions around this topic:
All the same arguments for dirty EVs apply to ICE vehicles. ICE vehicles use many of the same materials, like iron, aluminum, and son on, and they have their own batteries and non-recyclable electronic components that go into landfills. Petroleum extraction, refining, and transportation leave a big impact on the planet each year, and the impacts are getting greater because easy-to-get oil has already been extracted.
After spending a day researching online I could not find an academic or balanced estimate of these two manufacturing technologies and which one is worse. Both have negative impacts on the environment. The final judgement on which is dirtier depends not on the facts (so many facts it is almost impossible to look at them all), but on other social factors. These include your political alliance, whether you are open to progress or prefer the tried and true, and who is the most successful as spinning the story.
My conclusion is that EVs are not green, in the sense that there is a lot of impact on the planet and people's lives from making them, but they are greener than ICE vehicles. This comes down to the lifespan of EVs, Their amazing efficiency, and the variety of sources for electricity now and in the future.
While much electricity is still generated by coal and other polluting processes, the creation of electricity from coal can be clean and efficient, but I admit that most of it isn't. All electricity can be transported via power lines, without the cost and threat of spills. In addition solar panels are becoming more efficient and less expensive than fossil fuels.
Bottom Line
The logic for me is simple, electricity is like the universal currency of energy. It can be used in multiple devices, and can be obtained from multiple sources.
Which type of car is better for me as a consumer?
Fires
"Researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles." - Auto Week News Lithium fire's however, when they occur, are almost impossible to put out.
Availability
The best source of information about what electric vehicles are available in Canada is still the EV Buyers Guide from CAA:
https://evbuyersguide.caa.ca/available-in-canada
Also helpful is the Canadian EV Tracker: https://electricautonomy.ca/ev-tracker/
6 months ago, my list of cars available and of interest to me was:
Tesla Model 3 RWD (MSRP $61,980)
Volvo XC40 (and C40) Recharge Twin Pure Electric (MSRP $59,950)
Polestar 2 Long Range Single Motor (MSRP $53,950)
Hyundai Ioniq 5 Long Range (MSRP $51,999)
Hyundai Ioniq 5 Standard Range RWD (MSRP $44,999)
Hyundai Kona (MSRP $43,699)
New possibilities:
2025 Volvo EX30 Core (MSRP $57,445.00) Made of many Chinese parts, this vehicle is very similar to the Zeekr X produced by the same parent company Geely. Why so expensive???
2024 BYD Dolphin (MSRP $65,000) Available now in Mexico, it may release in Canada next year. Touted as one of the cheapest vehicles in Australia right now, the estimated North American Price makes it a bit of a yawner.
2025 Zeekr X (US/CAN MSRP TBD) The Zeekr X is said to be on the slate for release in China in April of 2023. Strong rumors suggest that Zeekr's will be for sale in North American in the future. But when???
2025 or 2026 Tesla 2 (Estimated CAD MSRP $35,000) A small hatchback or similar. Likely to first release in China, then in North America. Could be the only really reliable and inexpensive EV in North America if it can be made in Mexico and sooner than later. If Chinese cars make it to North America, the Tesla 2 will be one of many affordable options.
2025 VW ID.2 (Estimated CAD MSRP $37,000) The new Golf, essentially. Again, price, really?
2024 or 2025 in BC, 2026 in Prairies and Atlantic Canada Honda Prologue (Estimated CAD $55,000 to $60,000). First of the Japanese cars to really look at in my estimation. Wish it had been more of an SUV. Oh well, it's Honda. I've never owned one. They are usually too low slung for me.
2025 to 2027 Fisker Pear (E CAD $38,000) If Fisker survives, this is could be a stylish and affordable car for the North American Market. Big if.
2026 or later Kia EV 3 and EV 4 (Estimated MSRP CAD $40,000 to $55,000) still in the concept stage. Price would be the main attraction here, but not cheap enough to get excited about. If made in China, maybe the 3 will come in cheaper?
2024 or 2025 Kia EV 5 (CAD $60,000) Taking on the Model Y directly, a blocky scaled down EV9 already in production in China. Looks like fairly good ground clearance and good range, but not the best looks in my opinion.
2026 or later in Canada Canoo Pickup (Lord only knows what it will cost) Sigh. I dream of owning one. love the bulldog ad. But like Fisker, this startup has had many fits and starts. If it survives, and if the price is under $70,000, I would seriously consider it. Again, big ifs.
Of the above list, I am holding out hope for the Zeekr. A similar car to the EX30 but hopefully cheaper. Everything else is either too small, too expensive, too uncertain, or too ugly.
Affordability
This is my current pet peeve. It is related to the North American overcompensation with big vehicles. I've always loved small vehicles, starting with the original VW Bug and Van, my dad's Datsun pickup, my brother's Minis and Civics, and my own 510, GLC, Yaris, and Tracker. They were fun, cute, cool, affordable vehicles. I posted last time about some of my favorite little Chinese vehicles, especially the Yep and Cats. Also love the Xbus. None of these or anything like them is hitting North American any time soon. Tears and sadness.
A beautiful examples of what can be done with small electric in a country like Canada, is the Adventure 1 built by Potential Motors. Love everything about this vehicle, including the size.
Based in New Brunswick, the vehicle is built to drive in the challenging conditions that Canadians often face. It demonstrates what can be done. Cost, however, is a matter of scalability and economy of scale. Price estimate currently is $140K. Not within the budget of anyone I know.
For me, and I would say a large segment of the Canadian Population, the main factor holding us back from going all in on EVs is price. One thing that the Chinese industry has shown us is that EVs can cost about the same to build as ICE vehicles. This has been achieved largely because of the steep decline in the cost of and increase in the efficiency of batteries.
Of particular interest in the above video is the revelation of the superior cold weather performance that this new technology gives.
The slate of new batteries and technology is staggering. Carbon, salt, sulfer, there is too much to say about all of these. I'm confident that in a few years we will see amazing vehicles incorporating these revolutionary tech. But, it is a way off. So, I wait.